The hottest paper packaging market ushers in great

The paper and packaging markets are facing great turbulence. It depends on how securities people interpret

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core tip: [China Packaging News] how is the market this year? The industry generally believes that the peak season is not prosperous, and the demand is general. So, how does the capital market view it? After finishing its unique texture and flexibility, it can also bring a handicraft like texture to the products. Jiang Qing

[China Packaging News] what is the market like this year? The industry generally believes that the peak season is not prosperous, and the demand is general. So, how does the capital market view it? According to the latest report of Changjiang light industry research team, it is pointed out that in the third quarter, the product prices of papermaking and packaging industries showed a certain decline, and the profits of relevant enterprises also showed a downward trend

1. In the third quarter, the profit of the paper industry declined, but the ton profit of leading enterprises may still be at a high level

in the past third quarter, the price of paper products fell to varying degrees month on month, but the price of raw materials as a whole was still at a high level, so its profit fell to a certain extent. Among them, leading enterprises benefit from the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp and the amount of foreign waste, and their profits will still be significantly better than those of the industry

paper end: in the third quarter, the average price of white card/coated paper/double offset paper was 5562/6962/7167 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 9.93%/4.11%/5.53%

in the last week before the National Day holiday, the weekly average price of white cardboard was 5633 yuan/ton, unchanged month on month; The weekly average price of coated paper was 6850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month on month (↑ 0.74%); The weekly average price of double offset paper was 7000 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton month on month (↑ 0.24%)

raw material side: considering the transportation and inventory turnover cycle of wood pulp, the outer disk pulp/inner disk pulp was purchased more than 3/2 months ago in the third quarter. In the current period, the average price of outer disk coniferous pulp/outer disk broad-leaved pulp was $890/778/ton, with a month on month change of 0%/0.97%, and the average price of chemical and mechanical pulp was 4654 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.11%

in the last week before the National Day holiday, the weekly average price of coniferous pulp was 6650 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 50 yuan/ton (↓ 0.75%); The weekly average price of broad-leaved pulp was 6050 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 100 yuan/ton (↓ 1.63%); The weekly average price of chemical mechanical pulp was 4800 yuan/ton, unchanged month on month

in general, wood pulp paper products were in the off-season in the third quarter, and the price of paper products fell month on month, but the price of raw materials was still at a high level, and the profit per ton of leading paper enterprises may decline slightly compared with the second quarter

paper end: in the third quarter, the average price of box board/corrugated paper was 5415/4637 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 0.02%/2.39%

in the last week before the National Day holiday, the weekly average price of corrugated paper was 4324 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 148 yuan/ton (↓ 3.31%); The weekly average price of carton board paper was 5010 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 63 yuan/ton (↓ 1.24%)

raw material side: adjust the time window of month on month according to the inventory and transportation cycle (national waste 1 month, American waste 2 months). The average price of national waste yellow paperboard was 2693 yuan/ton, up 12.69% month on month, and the average price of American waste 13 # was 308 dollars/ton, up 22.49% month on month

in the last week before the National Day holiday, the weekly average price of national waste yellow paperboard was 2868 yuan/ton, unchanged month on month; The quotation of American waste 13 # was $310/ton, up $10/ton month on month (↑ 3.33%)

in general, in the third quarter, the profits of waste paper enterprises may decline, but the leader has the advantage of high-quality external waste channels and import quotas due to the energy conservation and pollution prevention tasks of the plastic granulator process, and the profit per ton may still be at a high level, which is better than the industry level (as of the 21st batch, Jiulong/Liwen/Shanying have been approved 5.43/238/2.36 million tons respectively, accounting for 34.4%/15.1%/14.9%)

2. Packaging: the performance recovers and the valuation bottoms out, and the leading enterprise accelerates to break down, bringing investment opportunities

in the past two years, the sharp rise in the price of upstream packaging paper and the tightening of environmental protection have forced a large number of small and medium-sized packaging plants to withdraw from the market. With the advantages of capital, design and service, the market share of packaging leading enterprises cannot be degraded naturally, showing a trend of accelerated improvement

since this year, box board corrugated paper has maintained a high level, and small and medium-sized paper packaging enterprises have been significantly suppressed by high priced raw materials, which is conducive to the accelerated collapse of the leading carton packaging enterprises: the price of white cardboard has declined slightly, and the leading carton packaging enterprises, mainly color box packaging, have benefited from the steady expansion of customers and the decline of raw material prices, or will enter the stage of profit restoration

in the medium and long term, drawing on international experience, PCA and rock Tenn, as the leading representatives of American paper packaging, have made great efforts to achieve rapid growth through horizontal integration/vertical extension/high-quality integrated services. In combination with the current domestic environment, platform enterprises and packaging enterprises with intelligent packaging integration and design and supply chain advantages may gain opportunities to accelerate their growth. For example, the PSCP business vigorously expanded by Hexing packaging is growing rapidly, and the improvement of Yutong technology and Jinjia shares in high-end color box printing is under the condition of ensuring the strength and safety performance of vehicles

as for the short-term development situation, the Changjiang light industry research team believes that:

Packaging: since last year, the paper packaging industry has shown a trend of accelerating integration driven by high priced raw materials, promoting high revenue and profits. Based on the judgment that the price of corrugated box board will remain high in the second half of the year, the industry integration probability will continue, and the leading enterprises will continue to increase

papermaking: since this year, the main contradiction of the papermaking industry is that the profits of the industrial chain are concentrated in the raw material link. The profits of the pure papermaking link are declining, and the barriers for domestic paper enterprises to have self-sufficiency in raw materials are high. Therefore, the leading paper enterprises can integrate the industry while maintaining their own profits. This trend is being fulfilled as scheduled. However, its negative impact lies in the price increase of paper products, which is superimposed on the impact of economic fluctuations on the demand for consumer goods. At this stage, the price increase in the peak season is less than expected, making the profit of leading tons callback from a high level, but it is still at a good level